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Welcome to the Horsedoppler Forecast Center for Thoroughbred Horse Racing! Here you’ll find time tested pace ratings used by professionals & fans alike. The HD Form comes complete with everything you need to handicap a full day of races with a strong emphasis on spotting current form, race pace, trainer preps, horses for courses, & class drops. Our product also features a visual horse graph that forecasts the start & finish based on each horses most recent races. Click the little blue bird to see more Horsedoppler winning selections on Twitter!


 

 
 
 
 
You are here:: HorseDoppler Resources HORSEDOPPLER 101
 
 

HORSEDOPPLER 101- Picking Winners & Exotic Plays

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This is the HorseDoppler 101 Crash Course... This is dedicated to those of you who love horse racing so much that you would actually dedicate the time to read these 101 hints, strategies, and trends from HorseDoppler. We hope this information will help you step up your game!

 

Need HD 101 in PDF Version?

HD 101 (horsedoppler 1011.pdf)

 

#1  Start by selecting a track that has been racing a few weeks or more into its meet. Avoid investing your hard earned money the first few weeks of any meet because the horses and jockeys are just getting used to the surface. The TRACK column gives you a good idea which horses have raced on todays surface and what kind of pace they ran.

 

#2  If you must play during the first few weeks of a meet, the TRACK and SHOW% columns do a 500 day search to help you spot any talent from the past. The WORKS column can help you detect any good form within a 60 day search.

 

#3  Horses shipping in from other tracks with current form should get a more focused nod over those who have been sidelined waiting for live racing to return.

 

#4  Avoid maiden races which have many first time starters, the Racing Guide marks these horse with a : to the right of their saddlecloth number.  

 

#5  If most of the horses have a rating in the TRACK column, you have found a race worth looking at. Horses with the best ratings in this column are the best contenders because they will likely be closest to the pace of the race. A standout rating will be considered the horse to beat.

 

#6  If many horses are tied for the best rating in the TRACK column, the SHOW% column will help you weed out the quitters from the hitters.

 

#7  The SHOW% column highlights horses that have stayed off the pace and then pulled away from a field in a winning effort or gained ground down the stretch towards the winner.

 

#8  If you find a horse that has the highest TRACK column rating and the best SHOW% rating you may have found your key horse. Now would be the time to scan the RIDER &@DIST columns to see if this horse has been prepped with today’s rider or at today’s distance.

 

#9   Horses that have a good RIDER & or@DIST column rating comprise a high percentage of winners each day.  These ratings are based on a 90-day search and should be considered with ratings in the TRACK column.

 

#10  Take note that the@DIST column has 2 letters after each rating, these letters represent speed, press, stalk, & close.

 

#11   The SPEED column highlights horses which have taken the lead early.

 

#12  The PRESS column highlights horses which have ran within 2 lengths of the leader early without taking the lead.

 

#13  The STALK column highlights horses which have stayed off the pace more than 2 lengths but stayed within 4 lengths.

 

#14  The CLOSER column highlights horses which have stayed well off the pace more than 4 lengths.

 

#15  The SPEED, PRESS, STALK, & CLOSE columns all have a data search within 90 days and feature filters that remove turf efforts in dirt races & route efforts in sprint races.

 

#16  Each horse can have a rating in the SPEED, PRESS, STALK, & CLOSE columns, but the highest rating will determine the purse value found in the PURSE column.

 

#17  The PURSE column gives you the handicapper an insight on class and where the trainer is taking each horses best recent effort. The purse of the race is found above this column.

 

#18  If the horses purse value is more than today’s race purse value, it can be assumed the horse is dropping into softer company and should be considered.

 

#19  If the horses purse value is less than today’s race purse value, it can be assumed the horse is climbing into a more competitive race.

 

#20  If you must bet on a horse climbing in purse value, it might be wise to require a BOLD rating in its current form.

 

#21  Class handicappers usually look at a $10,000 claiming race and compare it to another $10,000 claiming race not knowing that these 2 races could have 2 totally different purse values. The race with the higher purse value will almost always have tougher competition because the better horses tend to get entered into the bigger purses.

 

#22  Horses are put in tougher spots sometimes to make them look worse than they are, so they can drop into an easier spot and win at better odds.

 

#23   If the favorite is coming into the race with a lesser purse value than the race and most of the others in the field, the opportunity to bet another horse with longer odds is knocking on your door.

 

#24  Poking holes in the favorite is the first step in betting a longer shot to win.

 

#25  If the favorite does not have a RIDER column rating it can be assumed that the rider may not be as familiar with the horse and may not get its best effort today.

 

#26  If the favorite does not have an@DIST column rating it can be assumed that the horse may not be trained to run this distance and might be using it just for conditioning.

 

#27  If the favorite does not have a TRACK column rating it can be assumed that the horse might need a race on the surface before becoming a safe bet.

 

#28  If the favorite does not have a rating in the PURSE column it can be assumed that the horse has not had a race within 90 days an might be better left for someone else to bet on.

 

#29  If the favorite does not have speed & does not have a top rating in the SHOW% column, it can be assumed he'll need softer company today. Expect some sort of drop in purse before dropping any money on this one.

 

#30  Once the holes have been poked and the minutes to post have run low its time to spot the longshot plays. Don't be afraid to bet 2 or 3 horses in a race to win if the favorite looks like swiss cheese. I have bet 3 horse in a race with odds of 13-1 ,15-1, 70-1 only to see my 13-1 and 15-1 dual down the stretch and get nipped on the inside by my 70-1 horse. I'm a $20 bettor, so collecting over $1600.00 without signing for it is well worth the other $40 bet on the second & third horses.  

 

#31  The WORKS column has spotted more than its share of longshot winners, we use a formula that has proven itself well over the past 20 years.

 

#32  If any horse has a BOLD rating that is best in it's column, but does not share the enthusiasm of the bettors money, consider these horses at any odds.

 

#33  If a horse has a BOLD rating in the TURF column that is higher than all the ratings in the@DIST column, you may have found a ringer especially if a purse drop is evident.

 

#34  Stalkers at the distance or in the STALK column win more than their fair share of races at long odds, That is one of the reasons why the 3 selection boxes in the upper left of each race puts the best STALK column rating in the top box.

 

#35  Speed & Press horses can steal the front end if left alone at any odds so they are placed in the middle box for higher consideration than the lower box.

 

#36  A Speed horse can be a very good bet if it took the lead in a much higher purse than whats offered in today;s race.

 

#37  A Speed horse can be a very good bet on a sloppy track, because less mud on the face tends to lead horses to a clean win.

 

#38  Closers win their share at long odds because they usually need a very swift race up front to give them a chance to win. A quick glance at the SPEED & PRESS column will give you an idea of how much speed is in the race. Also consider Speed & Press in the@DIST column.

 

#39  When handicapping Claiming races, current form is more likely to produce winners. Check for horses showing BOLD ratings in the SPEED, PRESS, STALK, CLOSE, RIDER, @DIST, and TURF columns.

 

#40  When handicapping Allowance races, the TRACK and SHOW% columns deserve more focus because these horses represent some of the better horses on the grounds and they don't need to run as often to stay in shape.

 

#41  When handicapping Maiden races, do a head count of first time starters. If there are 2 or more first time starters move on to another race unless you like the thrill of burning money.  First Time starters have “ : ”  to the right of its number.

 

#42  When handicapping Maiden Special Weight (Md Sp Wt) it's usually a crap shoot, but for some strange reason the worst workout in the WORKS column tends to yield good longshot plays. It may be because the trainers are working them somewhere else. If you had a horse with poor works, would you be sending them in Md Sp Wt? 

 

#43  Once you have handicapped your winners and are looking for horses to land in the second, third, forth or even fifth spots I have noticed that the highest PURSE column horses love to slide into second place without any talent evident.

 

#44  Horses that show BOLD in the TURF column usually sneak their way in late on dirt, especially when there is lots of speed.

 

#45  Horses that show BOLD in the TURF column usually do well in longer races on dirt.

 

#46  Recently claimed horses without a win for the new owners are flanked by a $ to the left of the saddlecloth number, these horses are good plays especially when they show a purse drop. Look for some talent at the track, distance or with the rider. 

 

#47  Horses which have run their best rating at todays distance have a dot to the right of their saddlecloth number, these horses are usually sent if the make-up of the race fits the horses running style.

 

#48  If the race is full of Speed & Press horses, its usually safe to box as many of the SHOW% column horses that you can afford, to take home a nice exacta, trifecta, superfecta or high 5.

 

#49  In Short races like 6 furlongs or less, the TRACK column will likely yield more winners.

 

#50  In longer races like 6 1/2 to 8 furlongs the SHOW% column will likely yield more winners.

 

#51  In route races longer than a mile the RIDER & @DIST columns tend to be winning factors more often.

 

#52  Whenever a horse has Bold ratings in the RIDER & @DIST columns, consider them live plays for win and exotics.

 

#53  In races run on synthetic dirt surfaces our ratings do very well, but when you are looking for an unseen edge the TURF column tends to spot horses that will run exceptional on synthetic dirt surfaces.

 

#54 In Turf races the TURF column will highlight each horses best recent effort on turf while the TRACK column will highlight each horses best effort on todays Turf course within a 500 day search.

 

#55  In Turf races the BOLD works in the WORKS column tend to win more than their fare share of races.

 

#56  If you like to cash tickets by showing horses, the SHOW% column is your tool. The horse you "show" should have a good TRACK rating as well as a Rider or@DIST rating.

 

#57  If you like betting speed horses, bet a horse which is the only speed in  @DIST column and has shown speed or press in the SPEED or PRESS column otherwise a speed horse might be a shaky investment.

 

#58  If you are a system bettor, I would say "put win, place, & show money on every horse that has a BOLD SHOW% rating" and see if that works for you on a ROI system.

 

#59  If you are a card player, this method works well for spotting winners, look at each horse and circle each horses highest matching ratings. once you have done that, play the horses with the most ratings that match. like 5 of a kind beats 4 of a kind and so on......

 

#60  If you like two horses with the same rating, but choose only to bet one of them, other columns will come to the rescue of breaking the tie. My first tie breaker would be PURSE followed TRACK then by @DIST, then RIDER... 

 

#61  If you are looking for a tip sheet, I would strongly suggest our ANGLE PLAYS report. It is simple and easy to read with a visual graph of each horses current form.

 

#62  If you would like a tip sheet that covers every race and track, the DUAL REPORT has 4 black highlighted selections based on current form, running style, works, and other various angles.

 

#63  If you would like an overview of angles, the DUAL REPORT offers up to 9 different angle plays in the 9 selection boxes.

 

#64  If you want to spot horses that might be better than their ratings suggest, you only need to look at BOLD ratings throughout our reports.

 

#65  If you want to spot horses that might be better than their ratings suggest and would like to see a picture visual, our Photo-Graph Report has horses with legs spread apart to help you spot horses that were either drawing away from the field in a win or closing the gap on the winner at the end of the race.

 

#66  Horses in the Photo-Graph Report with the legs tucked in were either losing ground while on the lead or fading from the winner down the stretch.

 

#67  Horses with tucked in legs can be excused if they were in a purse value much higher than today’s.

 

#68  The Photo-Graph Report also graphs the likely early pace scenario showing the likely speed, press, stalk, and closers at the beginning of the race.

 

#69  Bottom line, if you want to increase your chance of winning on a regular basis, invest your money in Claiming races only.

 

#70  Claiming races have horses that are for sale, these horses talents are based mostly on their current form, current form is spotted easily with Horsedoppler Reports. 

 

#71  Maiden races have young horses which may not have shown their best effort which makes those races somewhat less predictable.

 

#72  Allowance races are full of horses with a wide range of talent which makes it harder to zero in on a winner. Horses with good current form are weighted higher and those showing less form are less weighted making the race more even.

 

#73  Stakes Races are basically your watercooler conversation pieces, It's OK to bet these races so you'll have something to talk about at the cooler.

 

#74  5 furlong races are long enough for Horsedoppler to calculate pace ratings, anything less should be left to quarter horse bettors.

 

#75  9 furlong races are short enough for Horsedoppler to calculate pace ratings, anything more and it's time to go get a hot dog.

 

#76  Many horses are bet off the board when they win at 6 furlongs and decide that 6 ½  furlongs should be just as easy. The reality is the 6½ furlongs race will likely be won by a horse that specializes in that distance.

 

#77  Many horses are bet as the favorite when they take the lead and fade at 6 furlongs, but today they are only running 5 ½ furlongs.  The reality is that this race will likely have more horses that will know how to get the lead causing the favorite to quit when headed.

 

#78  Many horses take the lead and fade at 5 and a 1/2 furlongs and then are ignored or laughed at when they attempt 6 furlongs. These horses if left alone on the lead are serious threats to go wire to wire because the longer distance usually offers a softer early fraction.

 

#79  Many horses are bet off the board because they made what looked to be a big rush from last to first in a recent race, but reality will tell you that a horse that comes from last to first usually were passing tiring horses and would need the same tiring scenario to do a repeat.

 

#80  Closers are the worst bets at the track for a win because they need a pace scenario that might not happen, and they are prone to traffic problems.

 

#81  Stalkers are the best bet at the track for a win bet because speed horses usually get pressed causing them to tire and half the traffic is behind them.

 

#82  If you can't decide between a speed horse and a press horse, horses that press are usually the safer bet.

 

#83  If you want to bet 2 speed horses in a short race, it's not a bad idea because if one of them gets a bad break you could be cashing big depending on their odds.

 

#84  Entries like 1 and 1A are usually put in a race to play rabbit and set the race up for the hare, but sometimes they are entered in a larger field to see which one gets the most favorable post position. Once that is determined the other one is scratched.

 

#85  If an Entry of 1 and 1A go to the gate and you believe they both have a chance to win, place and show pays can be huge if they both land in the money.

 

#86  If your looking for a power play, a horse that has a $ and a dot with the best rating in the @DIST column that is BOLD, may be your play of the day. These are rare and far between but well worth searching for.

 

#87  If you like to play pick 3's and you are able to choose which races (rolling pick 3's) wait until you find 3 claiming races in a row, that’s where the moneys at because claiming races produce more beaten favorites on a regular basis.

 

#88  If you can afford to play 3 horses in each leg of a pick 3, it's best to select a speed, stalk, and closer for each race. This is usually a $27 bet.

 

#89  If you come across a sprint race in the Horsedoppler Daily Racing Guide and find a horse with no stats all the way across but the PURSE column has a rating, this is likely a horse that has been running in routes. Might be dangerous if the race is laced with too much speed.

 

#90  If you come across a horse which is not a first time starter, but has no stats all the way across, it is likely a horse which has not been in a race within the past 90 days and has no experience at the track.

 

#91  If a horse has identical ratings in the RIDER,TRACK,& @DIST columns, and the horse shows up in one of the top 3 selection boxes, this deserves serious consideration.

 

#92  If a horse has a 99 in the WORKS column it should be looked at with the greatest consideration of works. This represents a horse that has run fastest of a field of 18 horses or more within the last 60 days.

 

#93  If a filly has an upper 90's in the WORKS column, this work must be considered because the ratings were against the older horses as well as the males.

 

#94  If a two year old has an upper 90's in the WORKS column, this must be considered because the ratings were against older horses.

 

#95  In most races the RIDER, @DIST, & TURF columns can be the columns for spotting winners, consider all horses with high ratings in these three columns when all the ratings are combined and compared.

 

#96  If a horse has no rating in the RIDER, @DIST & TURF columns to compare with, the horse should probably take someone elses money. 

 

#97  Overnight scratches have been removed & the saddlecloth numbers are 99.9% accurate.

 

#98   When a horse has a big SPEED, PRESS, STALK, or CLOSE rating take caution if that rating is not found in the TRACK column. This kind of horse might be shipping in from an extremely fast track and will likely run different on todays track surface. 

 

#99  The key to using the SPEED, PRESS, STALK, and CLOSE columns is to match them up with ratings found either in the RIDER, @DIST, or TRACK columns. The more these numbers match up, the more solid your play is.

 

#100   I have used the Horsedoppler Racing Guide for over 20 years and in that time I have not used a racing form or program, but I'm glad other people do or we wouldn't have false favorites.

 

#101  Spend as much time as you can reverse handicapping, this means every night when you can, look at the winners of the day and then see what they had in the Horsedoppler Racing Guide. Do this enough and you will start to see handicapping angles that consistently pay-off to those who can spot them before the race begins